Proposed COVID19 Mitigation Logic Model

A week or two ago, I posted “A Tale of Two Trends” in which I attempted to show trends in daily COVID19 infection rates for countries that were successful and those that were not. This post deals with a proposed logic model (attached below) that might explain these two trends. The red sequence is not what we want to be doing while the green sequence is what we should be doing. The actual daily infection rates taken from the various countries clearly demonstrate the differences when the appropriate mitigation approaches are not followed.

COVID19 Logic Model